Harwick Villa 1 - 3 Padlewkin

Key Events:

• 14' Yellow card to Harwick Villa Luca Colombo
• 20' Padlewkin Pedro Chagas scores, assisted by Philippe Robert
• 35' Yellow card to Harwick Villa Xinping Boon
• 40' Yellow card to Harwick Villa Vladimir štimac
• 44' Padlewkin Michel Lemoine scores, assisted by Seungwoo Jeong
• 45' Yellow card to Padlewkin Pedro Chagas
• 60' Yellow card to Harwick Villa Weijie Hong
• 69' Harwick Villa Xinping Boon scores, assisted by Luca Colombo
• 82' Yellow card to Padlewkin Philippe Robert
• 90' Yellow card to Harwick Villa Friedrich Unger
• 90' Yellow card to Padlewkin Michel Lemoine
• 90' Padlewkin Philippe Robert scores

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis: The Gazzetta chance-quality estimate gave Harwick Villa 1.72 xG and Padlewkin 2.19. The 1 - 3 scoreline therefore reflects both a clear advantage in the quality of Padlewkin’s chances and a difference in finishing: the visitors scored three from an estimate of 2.19, while the hosts managed one from 1.72. That is a little over-performance from Padlewkin and under-performance from Harwick Villa, though not so extreme as to require an explanation involving the weather, the posts, or other familiar witnesses.

The shot count was level at 11 apiece, but seven Padlewkin attempts reached the target compared with four for Harwick Villa. That distinction helps explain how the visitors converted their attacking threat into two first-half goals and then added a third at the end, while the hosts’ reply through Xinping Boon did not become the start of a comeback. Harwick Villa had 52% possession, nine corners and more tackles, but those measures did not outweigh Padlewkin’s more frequent testing of the goalkeeper. The hosts also committed 18 fouls to Padlewkin’s nine, and their five yellow cards made for a busy afternoon in the disciplinary ledger.

No Harwick Villa players reached the 7.0 rating threshold.

For Harwick Villa, the possession and corner counts offered signs of activity without enough end product; for Padlewkin, equal shot volume came with greater accuracy and a two-goal margin. The hosts did find a way back into the match through Boon in the 69th minute, but Padlewkin held on and Robert settled the score in the 90th. The final 1 - 3 was a fair reward for the visitors’ sharper finishing, while Harwick Villa are left with the less satisfying arithmetic of having had the ball more often and still needing to chase the game.