Hay St Milth 3 - 2 Newton Rangers

The Gazzetta chance-quality estimate put Hay St Milth at 2.64 xG and Newton Rangers at 2.63, a near-perfect statistical split in a match that ended 3-2. The hosts finished 0.36 goals above their estimate, while Newton Rangers scored 0.63 fewer than theirs. With both sides recording 11 shots and 10 on target, the visitors were not short of attempts; the difference was that Hay St Milth turned a closely matched supply of chances into one more goal. The hosts also had more possession, 54% to 46%, and slightly better pass accuracy, 84% to 81%, but neither measure suggests a match controlled from start to finish.

The sequence explains the swing. Pedro Chagas opened the scoring in the 6th minute, only for Allan Carroll and Seungwoo Jeong to put Newton Rangers ahead by the 19th, both goals assisted by Michel Lemoine. Allan Carroll pulled Hay St Milth level just before the break, and Philippe Robert supplied the winner in the 54th minute. The seven yellow cards—four for the hosts and three for the visitors—made for a busy disciplinary ledger, though neither side saw red. Hay St Milth leave with the win; Newton Rangers leave with the near-identical xG and the less useful end of the scoreline.

Key Events:

• 6' Hay St Milth Pedro Chagas scores, assisted by Philippe Robert

• 9' Newton Rangers Allan Carroll scores, assisted by Michel Lemoine

• 19' Newton Rangers Seungwoo Jeong scores, assisted by Michel Lemoine

• 40' Yellow card to Hay St Milth Pedro Chagas

• 44' Hay St Milth Allan Carroll scores, assisted by Pedro Chagas

• 54' Hay St Milth Philippe Robert scores

• 55' Yellow card to Hay St Milth Jorge Alvez

• 57' Yellow card to Newton Rangers Michel Lemoine

• 73' Yellow card to Hay St Milth Michel Lemoine

• 77' Yellow card to Newton Rangers Seungwoo Jeong

• 80' Yellow card to Newton Rangers Phillip Lewis

• 87' Yellow card to Hay St Milth Nilson Pires

• No Newton Rangers players recorded a rating of 7.0 or higher.