Harnellinch 1 - 3 Thouge Athletic

Key Events:

• 2' Yellow card to Harnellinch Saliou Sow
• 17' Harnellinch Alejandro Hernandez scores, assisted by Xinping Boon
• 31' Yellow card to Thouge Athletic Nelson Paulo
• 42' Thouge Athletic John Oliver scores, assisted by Salah Samir
• 51' Thouge Athletic Bernard Thompson scores, assisted by Koji Nota
• 63' Yellow card to Thouge Athletic Koji Nota
• 89' Thouge Athletic Nelson Paulo scores, assisted by Peter Robinson

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis: The Gazzetta chance-quality estimate gave Harnellinch 1.32 xG and Thouge Athletic 3.78. The actual goals were one and three respectively, leaving both sides below their expected totals: Harnellinch by 0.32 and Thouge Athletic by 0.78. That is not a suggestion that the visitors lacked threat. They put 13 of 18 shots on target, compared with four of Harnellinch’s seven, and their xG advantage points to a much larger body of chances behind the final score. Harnellinch had slightly more possession, 51 per cent to 49, but possession did not translate into comparable attacking volume. Thouge Athletic made more of its time without the ball, while the home side’s early lead proved insufficient protection once the visitors began converting their pressure into goals.

No players reached a rating of 7.0 or higher.

Thouge Athletic’s equaliser just before half-time reset a match that had initially favoured Harnellinch, and the goal five minutes after the break gave the visitors a lead their shot volume had been threatening. The late third goal settled the margin, though the underlying figures suggest the result was not built on a single fortunate moment. Harnellinch matched the visitors in possession and completed passes at a marginally higher rate, but made four tackles to Thouge Athletic’s 11 and generated fewer shots. The numbers describe a contest in which the ball was shared, while the more dangerous work was not.