Aycoe Athletic 2 - 3 Holey Athletic

Key Events:

• 6' Aycoe Athletic Philippe Robert scores, assisted by Michel Lemoine
• 17' Yellow card to Holey Athletic Israel Morales
• 30' Yellow card to Aycoe Athletic Philippe Robert
• 63' Holey Athletic Luca Colombo scores, assisted by Israel Morales
• 69' Yellow card to Holey Athletic Luca Colombo
• 79' Holey Athletic Michael Howard scores, assisted by Xinping Boon
• 87' Holey Athletic Michael Howard scores, assisted by Luca Colombo
• 89' Yellow card to Aycoe Athletic Michel Lemoine
• 90' Aycoe Athletic Nilson Pires scores, assisted by Philippe Robert

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis: Aycoe Athletic scored twice from 1.44 xG, finishing 0.56 above its chance-quality estimate, while Holey Athletic scored three from 2.58 xG, an over-performance of 0.42. Both sides were more clinical than the model expected, but Holey Athletic built the stronger underlying case: 12 shots and nine on target, compared with Aycoe Athletic’s eight shots and four on target. Aycoe Athletic had 56% possession, more corners and greater pass accuracy, yet Holey Athletic’s higher shot volume and accuracy suggest its possession was less important than what it did when attacks reached the finishing stage. The visitors’ three second-half goals turned that advantage into the result; Aycoe Athletic’s late reply narrowed the score but could not change the outcome.

The numbers describe a match in which control and threat did not travel together. Aycoe Athletic circulated the ball more accurately, won nine corners and completed more dribbles, but Holey Athletic registered five more shots and five more efforts on target. The visitors also made 11 tackles to the hosts’ six, while committing more fouls; the contest was not short of interruptions, though neither side was reduced to ten. Aycoe Athletic’s early lead showed the value of taking a chance when it arrived. Holey Athletic’s second-half scoring showed, rather more emphatically, that getting attempts on target is a useful way to make the possession column feel less urgent.